Tuesday, June 19, 2007

Garbage In, Garbage Out

This blog is actually looking at the electronic sensors that monitor temperatures for the National Weather Service. It turns out that some are placed on roofs, near air conditioning vents, next to a trash burning oil drum, etc., so their readings are questionable. Contrast the two graphs, one for the sensor that has moved and had changing conditions around it and one that has not moved or changed in the last century.

Are we certain the globe is warming?


softwareNerd said...

Nope, we aren't sure the globe is warming, even though many people have thrown in the towel on that question and instead insist that the warming isn't primarily caused by humans.

The guys at Climate Audit spend a lot of time analyzing things like temp. I cannot say they're right. I can say: experts still disagree.

Even the claims for warming are in the 1 degree Celsius range. A majority of weather stations aren't set up with a need for that much accuracy.

From all I have read, I find the presumed accuracy of temperature estimates going back centuries to be a bit far-fetched. When I started reading about this, I found that there are lot of assumptions that scientists have to make. For instance, a scientist might measure tree-rings and then discard the measurements as not being representative for some reason; a scientist also has to weigh different proxy measurements differently. All this is done using some theoretical assumptions, and sometimes these assumptions amount to begging the question.

So, on the long-term historical record as well, it's clear that scientists disagree.

If you want to get a flavor or some of the arguments, check out this paper

Inspector said...

Thanks for posting that, Myrhaf!

It really irritates me when fellow "heretics" concede that point. Even the idea that the globe is warming at all is very much a disputed point, scientifically.

EdMcGon said...


I feel pretty safe making that prediction. ;)

Myrhaf said...

Ed, I put as much credence in your prediction as I do in Al Gore's.

EdMcGon said...

Look at it this way, if Al Gore says the Earth is warming, then the truth has to lie in the opposite direction. :)