1. He has no mandate. Yes, he has campaigned on the word change, but change from what to what? His rhetoric is empty. He is not a crusader for bold new programs.
2. He is a social metaphysician. Like that pathetic guy you once knew who agreed with everything you said just to be your friend, Obama is more concerned with what other people think than with the facts of reality. As do Bill Clinton and many politicians, Obama wants to be loved more than anything. Basking in the adoration of mass crowds will be more important to him than reading tedious position papers and actually getting something done. Such a character trait promises mediocrity.
3. He lacks intelligence. I have yet to hear him say anything remotely intelligent or profound. Again, this points to a mediocre presidency of business as usual.
4. He lacks experience. He has done little in his life except run for office, and he will likely continue to do little in the White House.
5. He lacks integrity. He flip-flops on a dime for political expedience. He hasn't the spine to fight for serious change.
6. The Republicans will make his life hell. I expect the evil, obstructionist Republicans in Congress to oppose every breath Obama takes, and to harry him the way they did Clinton. They would not oppose McCain's big government policies the way they would a Democrat's. If the Republicans let us down here, then the entire goddamn party deserves to rot in the wilderness and shrink to marginal importance.
7. His presidency would expose big government. His failures would be attributed to big government liberalism, not to capitalism, as he does not pay lip service to freedom the way Republicans do (who pursue big government as much as the Democrats). A Democrat president would bring more clarity, instead of more of the confusion we have suffered under Bush.
8. He will keep us laughing. He makes so many gaffes, such as saying he has been to 57 states in America, that he will provide much entertainment and much content for this blog.
9. We can get beyond "the first black president." Once we have achieved the cultural milestone of electing the first black president, then race -- at least the black race -- should become a non-issue. No one will campaign to be "the second black president." Future African-Americans will have to campaign on ideas and policies, not their skin color, and that will be a good thing. (The only drawback is that the immediate focus will shift to "the first female president," and you know who that means.)
10. The religious right will suffer a minor setback. Abortion will be safe for the time being. Granted, Obama's judicial nominees will certainly be atrocious statists who view the Constitution as toilet paper and laugh at the concept of property rights... but I'm looking for positives here.
To sum up, we stand at a dangerous moment in America. Both parties have embraced big government. Both McCain and Obama promise to march us down the road to socialism. In such a time, we need a president who will be the least competent in attaining his goals. By every standard of measurement, the major party candidate who promises to be more incompetent and ineffective is Obama. I believe his presidency would be like Bill Clinton's: heavy on symbolism, light on substance.
The greatest irony in an election full of ironies is that the candidate who has campaigned for change will probably be a business as usual, status quo president. Even on Iraq, when you examine his statements, he promises the same things Bush does. Muddling on as we have for decades is not good, but it's not as bad as it would be under a crusading socialist like Ralph Nader.
This post is not an endorsement for Obama -- it's still too early. I want to see the VP picks, the conventions, the debates and the serious mud-slinging in the fall before I decide. But this post shows my recent thinking.